Five Guys to Watch For The Rule 5 Draft

With 40-man rosters being set today, any player Rule 5 eligible can be drafted away from their original teams for a minuscule fee on December 8 during the annual Rule 5 Draft, provided that they stay on their new teams 25-man roster the entire year. If not, they will be returned to their original teams. This does not get much attention from those outside from the most diehard fans, as most eligible players are organizational fillers who will never play a major role in the big leagues. However, there are some success as well, including Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, Johan Santana, and in more recent years, Odubel Herrera and Marwin Gonzalez. In this article, we will list the 5 players with performances or tools that will be very enticing for other clubs to take a chance on.

Last year's draft recap and scouting reports can be found here.

OF Barrett Barnes, Pittsburgh Pirates
The 25-year-old Barnes may have the best combination of tools, stats, and pedigree out of anybody eligible this year. The former supplemental first round pick has both speed and power, as well as raw athleticism uncommon for a college draftee like him. Since being drafted in 2012, he has put up a career slash line in the minors of .279/.367/.436, good for an .803 OPS while showing off his tools and even some plate discipline. His only fault? He consistently gets injured. So far in his professional career, he has never had a fully healthy season until 2016, when he produced a solid .306/.377/477 line in Double-A. A team looking for an outfielder for the short side of a platoon with some future potential should look to take a flier on Barnes's athleticism and bet on him staying healthy.

3B Nicky Delmonico, Chicago White Sox
Delmonico has had a long ride, to say the least. A former high-upside prospect in the Orioles system, the offensive-minded third baseman broke out in 2013 with a .243/.350/.469 slash line in A-ball before being dealt to Milwaukee for Francisco Rodriguez. There he scuffled for 1 and half seasons, on top of a PED suspension in 2014 and being released by the Brewers after that year. Last year, however, he signed on with the White Sox system and after struggling in 2015, promptly started raking again in 2016, hitting .279/.347/.490 in AA and AAA combined. He is still just 24 years old, and has a clean swing with above average pop. Look for a team who needs a platoon infielder/bench bat to take a shot on Delmonico during the Rule 5 Draft.

LHP Wei-Chung Wang, Milawukee Brewers
Wang is a veteran of the Rule 5 process, having been taken by the Brewers before the 2014 season. The lefty was still making the jump from Rookie ball at the time, and understandably struggled in his brief time in the bigs. After being outrighted off the 40-man roster, Wang has put up a solid season in 2016, with a 3.78 ERA, 7.7 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 between AA and AAA combined. He clearly has talent, which the Brewers were willing to take a flier on, with a fastball that touches 96 and above average curve and change. Teams in need of a LOOGY or a bottom-of-the-rotation innings eater could look to stash Wang this coming season.

OF Jon Kemmer, Houston Astros
Coming off the heels of a breakout 2015 that saw him hit .327/.414/.574 with 18 home runs in AA, Kemmer initially struggled in his first exposure in AAA, batting just .258 with 5 homers in the first half. However, as he started to adjust to the pitching, he returned to his old mashing ways, hitting .274 with 13 home runs in the second half of the season. He is not just an offensive threat either; he can play both corner outfield spots proficiently as well as center field in a pinch, with a strong arm to boot. Any team looking for a lefty swinging outfielder as a platoon bat should see Kemmer as a cheap and possibly productive solution.

LHP Jordan Guerrero, Chicago White Sox
Unlike the other players on this list Guerrero did not put up great numbers in 2016, scuffling to a 4.83 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in AA ball. However, he is a lefty with plus arm speed and a 90-94 mph fastball that could play up in a relief role in the majors. His changeup is a plus offering, and a shift to the bullpen could allow him to lessen the usage of his fringy curveball. He has put up much better numbers at lower levels, such as in a breakout 2015 that saw him throw 149 innings with a 8.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. Despite middling command of his pitches and an elevated walk rate this season, the fastball/changeup combo should make him a serviceable LOOGY in a big league pen.

Rule 5 Wrapup

The Rule 5 Draft included several talented players that could play contributing roles this coming season. The biggest news, of course, is the Padres selecting four players to fill in their major league team. It is unlikely that all four will be kept, but there is no harm in giving these players chances at cracking the roster. Here is a rundown of all players drafted in the major league phase:

OF Tyler Goeddel, Philadelphia Phillies (from Rays)
Goeddel is an athletic outfielder who can also play third base well. He has a highly-regarded combination of speed, power, and plate discipline that made him a worthy first pick in the Rule 5 Draft. It has taken Goeddel several seasons to develop his raw tools, but he had a nice season in AA for the Montgomery Biscuits when he put the whole package together, slashing .279/.350/.433. He will likely provide the Phillies with an alternative option in the outfield in addition to starters Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera, and if given regular playing time, expect him to hit around .250/.310/.405 with 7 home runs and 15 stolen bases with potential for much more in the future.

OF Jake Cave, Cincinnati Reds (from Yankees)
A defense-first outfielder with some offensive potential, Cave reminds many Yankees fans of Brett Gardner when he was coming through the system. He hit well in AA/AAA in 2015, but it wasn't quite the breakout that Yankees fans were hoping for coming off a solid showing in 2014. He will likely never be a star in the big leagues with his lack of big-time power, but his solid, all-around approach ensures that he is MLB ready and will probably stick on the Reds roster all year, with a floor around what Sam Fuld has produced over the course of his career. Cave could slash something like .245/.310/.340 this season while providing plus defensive production, which is good value for both the present and the future, especially in the Rule 5 Draft.

LHP Evan Rutckyj, Atlanta Braves (from Yankees)
Another player taken out of the Yankees system, Rutckyj is nowhere near as heralded as Cave coming through the system. That doesn't mean he's a bad ballplayer though, as he has been a solid left handed reliever throughout the Yankees system. He generates a very good strikeout rate with his low 90's fastball that has been described as plus by Baseball America's J.J. Cooper, as well as a slider that is fringy. His command has been wobbly before this year but he has sharpened it up with a lower walk rate in 2015. He should be a decent LOOGY out of the Braves pen if given the chance to succeed. Interesting stat to note: he struck out 41% of all lefty hitters he faced this season.

RHP Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres (from Cardinals, through Rockies)
A live-armed Dominican from the Cardinals system, Perdomo has been ranked highly on prospect lists the last few years with his 93-97 mph fastball. His secondary offerings are still in the making, but his slider has flashed serious potential before. He topped out at A-ball this season, so the Cardinals took a risk leaving him unprotected because he was so far away. If he sticks on the major league roster all season, it could end up as a hurting loss, but with his relative rawness it will be difficult for the Padres to keep him all year. In his prime, he could be a #2 or 3 starter who posts good K-rates, but he has quite a bit of work to get there whether it's with the Cardinals system or the Padres.

2B/OF Colin Walsh, Milwaukee Brewers (from A's)
Walsh, a 25 year old infielder, broke out in a big way this season for the AA Midland RockHounds. The Stanford alum has shown solid plate discipline throughout his career, which has taken him through two organizations (Cardinals and A's) and reached AAA, in 2014, in which he struggled. Sent back down to AA, he built off his strong plate discipline with a walk rate north of 20% as well as flashing some power he hadn't shown since 2012 when he homered 16 times for low-A Quad Cities. He hit .302/.447/.470 with 39 doubles, 13 home runs and an insane 124 walks that led the Texas League by far. Walsh does have some strikeout issues, but given the right role in the new direction that the Brewers are headed under David Stearns, he could thrive in a utility spot and hit in the neighborhood of .245/.350/.375.

OF Jabari Blash, San Diego Padres (from Mariners, through A's)
Blash, a native of the Virgin Islands, flashes one serious tool: power. A true 70-grade, Blash is the only Rule-5 eligible player with true potential to top 35 HRs this year, given the proper circumstances and adjustments made. He has a bit of speed and can draw a walk, and he is surprisingly mobile with a 6'6'' frame and can play average-above average defense in right field. His only major concern is swinging and missing, as he racks up very high strikeout numbers over the course of his career before bashing 36 bombs between AA/AAA this season. If he receives full playing time in San Diego, expect a line around .215/.280/.440 with 19 HRs.

RHP Josh Martin, San Diego Padres (from Indians)
A former 10th round pick by the Cleveland Indians, the 25-year-old Martin dominated AA this season with a 2.27 ERA and a 10.7 K/9 to go with a solid 2.5 BB/9. The 6'6'' righty throws in the low-to-mid nineties with a curveball and changeup. He has produced a lot of strikeouts over the course of his minor-league career, and it is not unreasonable to expect him to do the same in the bigs. Given the light bullpen depth of the Padres, Martin will receive a fair chance to prove himself in Spring Training. He should be at least an average middle reliever, and a realistic expectation is around a 4.00 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

OF Joey Rickard, Baltimore Orioles (from Rays)
Rickard is a unique player, with a skill set that differs from your traditional corner outfielders. He lacks the conventional power, in fact he has barely any power at all (2 HRs this season), but he makes up for it with extreme plate discipline and good speed. He bats right-handed, unlike most slappy hitters who profile similarly, giving him a slight disadvantage getting out of the box. Interestingly, he throws with his left arm, which is decent but not a cannon. He does have good range, however, and his speed makes him an above average defender in both corner spots and could probably handle center field as well. He is very similar to teammate L.J. Hoes, who put up similar numbers but struggled in his brief time in the majors. Both players are very BABIP-reliant, and it is very likely that they will compete for the fourth/fifth outfielder job in Baltimore. Expect Rickard to hit around
.260/.330/.340 if given a spot on the Orioles roster. Here is a video of him making an incredible defensive play in the Venezuelan Winter League.

RHP Deolis Guerra, Los Angeles Angels (from Pirates)
The only player on this list with big-league experience, Guerra was a former top prospect in the Mets system, sent to Minnesota in the original Johan Santana trade. He scuffled, however, as he reached the upper levels in the minors, and the Twins eventually converted him to a relief role, where he still struggled, but posted better strikeout numbers. Before the 2015 season, the Pirates took a shot on Guerra's live arm and sent him to AAA Indianapolis, where he dominated to the tune of a 1.23 ERA and a 37/8 K/BB ratio. He was given a cup of coffee in the bigs but gave up 5 HRs in just 16.1 innings, leading to being DFA'd, clearing waivers, and picked in the Rule 5 Draft by the Angels. He will be given an opportunity to make a relatively weak bullpen and pick up some innings and strikeouts along the way.

RHP Joe Biagini, Toronto Blue Jays (from Giants)
Biagini, a 25-year-old right hander, had a nice season in AA Richmond in the Giants organization, posting a 2.42 ERA across 130.1 innings. He relies on a three-pitch mix, with a 87-92 mph fastball, a slurvy breaking ball, and a changeup. He doesn't strike out too many batters, as evidenced by his 5.8 K/9 ratio, but if the ERA is worth anything, he should be good at limiting batted ball damage, and the Blue Jays are hoping that skill will hold up in the major leagues. His best bet is to make it as the long man in the bullpen and hope his fastball ticks up in relief, but with his low strikeout rate and lack of success before 2015, it will be tough to crack a contending Blue Jays roster.

RHP Matt Bowman, St. Louis Cardinals (from Mets)
An alum of Princeton University, Bowman is a right-handed starter with a funky delivery. He has four pitches that he mixes well, a low-90s fastball, a slider, changeup, and curveball. Unlike Biagini, who had struggled over the course of his career before breaking out in 2015, Bowman had been a solid pitcher throughout the minors, posting good strikeout/walk rates at each level before struggling hard this year. His K/9 fell from 8.3 to 5.0, and his ERA rose from 3.32 to 5.53. But if there is any organization with a niche for finding hidden gem pitchers, its the Cardinals, and look for him to rebound this season in a long-relief role in the St. Louis bullpen.

LHP Daniel Stumpf, Philadelphia Phillies (from Royals)
In the second round of the Rule 5 Draft, the Phillies took a lefty from the Royals system, Stumpf, who can hit 94 mph with a good slider. In AA, left handed hitters managed to hit just .151 off of him and the Phillies are hoping he will be the LOOGY they are looking for to round out the bullpen.

LHP Chris O'Grady, Cincinnati Reds (from Angels)
Taken from an already thin Angels system, the pick of O'Grady will only hurt more. He profiles similarly to Daniel Stumpf, with the fastball-slider combo from the left side that has been effective against left handed hitters. He pitched well in AA and made it to AAA, striking out 8.9 per 9 innings across both levels. Expect him to compete for a LOOGY role in the shallow Reds bullpen as well.

RHP Zach Jones, Milwaukee Brewers (from Twins)
A righty relief prospect in the Twins system, Jones is a highly known commodity in baseball circles because of his ability to throw 100 mph. He also throws a power slider that plays well with his fastball and confounding for A-ball hitters to square up. However, his development has been slowed due to command/control issues and injuries. While he reached AA for the first time this season, he struggled with a 6.00 ERA and turned 25 years old already. Given proper coaching and refinement to his mechanics, Jones could become a valuable bullpen asset for the Brewers. His plus-plus stuff and potential to become a big-time set-up man was too much for Milwaukee to pass up, even for all the control problems. If he sticks, expect bouts of wildness every once in a while, but don't be surprised if he becomes a lockdown reliever.

RHP Blake Smith, San Diego Padres (from White Sox)

Yet another right handed reliever taken by the Padres, Smith is a converted outfielder with a big arm. He began his career as a second-round pick out of Cal, and he started hot, hitting lots of homers in the lower levels of the minors. What caused the switch was when he began to struggle against more advanced pitching in the higher levels of the system, and he has begun to harness his powerful right arm the last two seasons. He is already 27, but over the course of the past year he has improved his command and control, shaving his BB/9 from 8.7 his first year pitching in 2013 down to 4.6 in 2015, still high but a major improvement, especially considering the 10.9 K/9 and success at the AAA level. He will be a tough keep on the Padres roster all year, as hard-throwing righties with command issues are a dime a dozen, but the Padres obviously see something they like and will give him an opportunity to succeed and make the club in Spring Training.

1B/OF Ji-Man Choi, Los Angeles Angels (from Orioles)
When the Orioles signed Choi to a minor league contract early this winter, they certainly did not expect this coming. Choi was a minor league free agent, which made him Rule 5 eligible, and by signing him but not protecting him on the 40-man roster, the Orioles made a possible mistake. Choi, a former top prospect in the Mariners system, has missed most of the last two seasons due to PED suspension and multiple injuries. When healthy, he has produced power and solid defense in the minors, and the Angels are hoping he would do the same, filling their hole in left field and spelling an aging Albert Pujols at first. He is tough to project due to lost time, but it is possible for him to put ip a .240/.300/.390 slash this season with room to grow more.

Player Profile: Willians Astudillo

Photo: David M. Scholfield/Lakewood Blue Claws, Asbury Park Press

Willians Astudillo was born in the wrong decade. Back in the 70's or 80's, someone with his skill set would have been fast-tracked through the farm system and slotted into the big league lineup as a #2 hitter, useful in hit-and-run situations on a small ball team. However, in a generation that puts power at premium and walks as a valuable commodity, Astudillo does not stand out at either category and has been overlooked again and again in the Phillies system. His career .085 ISO, 3.9% walk rate, unideal body type, and his lack of a true defensive position have been huge turn-offs in the Phillies chain of minor league promotions. But if there is one thing that Astudillo can do, it is hit, and he has done it to an extreme rate. He has struck out just 51 times over 1,684 career minor league plate appearances, en route to a career .318 batting average. In this post, we will take a look how he has done it.

Taking a quick look at Astudillo's swing, it is evident why he doesn't have much power. He doesn't have tremendous bat speed and the swing isn't too explosive. His swing is mostly upper body and doesn't incorporate the lower half too well. On the other hand, it is very obvious why he makes so much contact. He has plus hand-eye coordination, and he is willing to adapt to each pitch by changing his swing. Sometimes it looks ugly, but it prevents strikeouts, and it has worked so far. This hyper-aggresive approach is also what makes his walk rate so low, but that has been effective thus far in his young career, and with his contact skills I doubt it will be exposed against more advanced pitching.

Defensively, Astudillo began his career as a catcher, with a career 30% caught stealing rate, but he was never too good behind the dish, so they experimented with him at different positions. He is probably best suited for first base, but at 5'9'' he is too small to play there at the big league level. He has played some corner outfield, but the speed limits him there and at third base, his range and athleticism in general is a bit of a problem. Interestingly enough, in the Venezuelan Summer League, he has played quite a bit of second base as well as 40 innings at shortstop. In the MLB, he will probably serve as a backup behind a durable catcher like Salvador Perez, but more of an emergency/third catcher and pinch hitter on most teams that employ a platoon or split playing time more evenly.

Astudillo is easily one of the most fun prospects to follow in all of baseball. In just his second season of full playing time, he hit .314/.348/.384 in 418 at bats with just 10 walks but only 10 strikeouts as well. He is truly the contact extremist, with a possible 60/65 hit tool. Unfortunately, his other tools grade out at 40 at best, with his arm maybe being a 45. He became a minor league free agent at the end of the season, and the Atlanta Braves gladly snatched him up to a minor league deal. Their eagerness may be for naught though, as by signing him to a minor league deal, he will be left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft and another team may take a shot on the bat-to-ball skills. Astudillo's absolute ceiling is something like Jose Altuve without the speed, which would be quite interesting since speed is Altuve's other elite tool and it plays well with the hit tool. Barring an insane occurrence, Astudillo will never be much defensively or on the basepaths, and his offensive ceiling is probably something like .290/.320/.350 which would be very useful as a backup/third catcher who could also play some other positions and be a very effective pinch hitter when you need the ball put in play late in the game with a National League team. This would likely be the best case scenario, but no matter the end result, it will be very fun tracking him throughout his journey through the minor leagues.

Bonus Video: Fittingly, I could not find a video of him hitting a home run, but there is one of him taking a protective swing and lining an RBI double down the left field line.