Will Dansby Swanson Be A Star?

Dansby Swanson, MLB.com

After being called up by the Atlanta Braves, the highly-hyped Dansby Swanson will now carry the helm as one of the next franchise cornerstones, their shortstop for both the near and long-term future. Talented both offensively and defensively, the 2015 1st overall pick has definitely deserved the attention, but will he be able to meet the lofty expectations of the fans and front office?

Inevitably sharing the spotlight with the second overall pick, another college shortstop, Alex Bregman, Swanson is more athletic and well-rounded than his Astros counterpart. While Bregman put up outstanding numbers in the minors and beat Swanson to the big leagues, Swanson definitely has the potential to both match and exceed his production over the course of their careers. His offensive numbers haven't been on par with Bregman yet, but with the quick hands and bat speed, as well as power projection, the upside is just as high. Check out this video of his swing:

His swing has a nice bat plane and a toe drag, his hands fly through the zone. Swanson will hit, no doubt, and there should be some power as well because of the plus bat speed. The pop may be limited a bit from reaching full potential because of lack of loft in his swing, but doubles will come for sure.

Defensively, Swanson has good hands, arm, range, and overall instincts. While his pure speed and athleticism can't match some other guys like Alcides Escobar or Andrelton Simmons, he can still make plays of their caliber because of his strong fundamentals and quick first step. The little things are very cleanly executed, and he doesn't have any excessive motions on defense. Expect him to be a defensive cornerstone for Atlanta in the years to come. On August 25, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Swanson made three outstanding plays that many other shortstops might not have made, all in the same game.

On top of being a great ballplayer, Swanson is also an incredibly down-to-earth guy. This interview from his time in short-season A-ball is a must-read.

AJC.com

Combining the bat, glove, and makeup, it's not hard to see why Swanson was ranked as one of the top-20 prospects in the game, and retaining his rookie eligibility, will probably rank higher this year. So where do the doubters come from? Some say that Swanson's lack of top-notch pure athleticism and physical tools will limit his potential. He has a strong arm, but it won't ever be an absolute cannon. He has a nice swing and his bat will play in the bigs, but he also doesn't have the raw power to hit 40 homers annually. And while his defense is plenty solid, he might never be able to catch up to the flashier shortstops in the league. You could say he is a 5-tool player, but none of the 5-tools are elite, making him a sort of better-than-a-jack-of-all-trades, but nonetheless master of none.

Still, Swanson is going to be the face of the Atlanta Braves franchise. His charisma, his play, and his name will draw fans to watch them play in their brand new stadium. While he may never lead the league in homers or win a Gold Glove, he could hit .290 with 20 homers and play very good defense, good enough to be an All-Star and be a top-5 shortstop in this league. No, not all white shortstops with good leadership skills will become Derek Jeter, and it may be a lazy comp, but it could also be the most accurate. Jeter, while never winning any MVPs, was a very good shortstop for a long time. He will definitely be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer despite not having the greatest numbers, because his leadership and being the franchise cornerstone of the dynastic Yankees helped his numbers play up. Swanson could very well be the same for the young Braves team on the rise. When the Braves return to contention in the next few years, watch for Swanson to continue his ascension to becoming one of the MLB's brightest young stars.

Bonus video: 

This is from JustBombsProductions, one of my favorite and most well-made YouTube highlight videos of all time, from Swanson's junior year at Vandy. JBP also makes other college baseball/football videos, so subscribe to them if you're into that kind of stuff!

Player Profile: Willians Astudillo

Photo: David M. Scholfield/Lakewood Blue Claws, Asbury Park Press

Willians Astudillo was born in the wrong decade. Back in the 70's or 80's, someone with his skill set would have been fast-tracked through the farm system and slotted into the big league lineup as a #2 hitter, useful in hit-and-run situations on a small ball team. However, in a generation that puts power at premium and walks as a valuable commodity, Astudillo does not stand out at either category and has been overlooked again and again in the Phillies system. His career .085 ISO, 3.9% walk rate, unideal body type, and his lack of a true defensive position have been huge turn-offs in the Phillies chain of minor league promotions. But if there is one thing that Astudillo can do, it is hit, and he has done it to an extreme rate. He has struck out just 51 times over 1,684 career minor league plate appearances, en route to a career .318 batting average. In this post, we will take a look how he has done it.

Taking a quick look at Astudillo's swing, it is evident why he doesn't have much power. He doesn't have tremendous bat speed and the swing isn't too explosive. His swing is mostly upper body and doesn't incorporate the lower half too well. On the other hand, it is very obvious why he makes so much contact. He has plus hand-eye coordination, and he is willing to adapt to each pitch by changing his swing. Sometimes it looks ugly, but it prevents strikeouts, and it has worked so far. This hyper-aggresive approach is also what makes his walk rate so low, but that has been effective thus far in his young career, and with his contact skills I doubt it will be exposed against more advanced pitching.

Defensively, Astudillo began his career as a catcher, with a career 30% caught stealing rate, but he was never too good behind the dish, so they experimented with him at different positions. He is probably best suited for first base, but at 5'9'' he is too small to play there at the big league level. He has played some corner outfield, but the speed limits him there and at third base, his range and athleticism in general is a bit of a problem. Interestingly enough, in the Venezuelan Summer League, he has played quite a bit of second base as well as 40 innings at shortstop. In the MLB, he will probably serve as a backup behind a durable catcher like Salvador Perez, but more of an emergency/third catcher and pinch hitter on most teams that employ a platoon or split playing time more evenly.

Astudillo is easily one of the most fun prospects to follow in all of baseball. In just his second season of full playing time, he hit .314/.348/.384 in 418 at bats with just 10 walks but only 10 strikeouts as well. He is truly the contact extremist, with a possible 60/65 hit tool. Unfortunately, his other tools grade out at 40 at best, with his arm maybe being a 45. He became a minor league free agent at the end of the season, and the Atlanta Braves gladly snatched him up to a minor league deal. Their eagerness may be for naught though, as by signing him to a minor league deal, he will be left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft and another team may take a shot on the bat-to-ball skills. Astudillo's absolute ceiling is something like Jose Altuve without the speed, which would be quite interesting since speed is Altuve's other elite tool and it plays well with the hit tool. Barring an insane occurrence, Astudillo will never be much defensively or on the basepaths, and his offensive ceiling is probably something like .290/.320/.350 which would be very useful as a backup/third catcher who could also play some other positions and be a very effective pinch hitter when you need the ball put in play late in the game with a National League team. This would likely be the best case scenario, but no matter the end result, it will be very fun tracking him throughout his journey through the minor leagues.

Bonus Video: Fittingly, I could not find a video of him hitting a home run, but there is one of him taking a protective swing and lining an RBI double down the left field line.