The Five One-Tool Players

Everyone knows the five-tool players: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper. These guys are the big name superstars, the household names. Most other players are productive despite lacking a tool or two. David Ortiz can't field, Jose Altuve doesn't have a big arm, but they can still impact the game in many ways. Most one-dimensional players will wash out in the minor leagues. Cody Johnson was known for his prodigious power, but he couldn't do much else. Willians Astudillo may be the best contact hitter on the planet, but he's still toiling in Double-A. However, in very rare occasions, some players can make it to the major leagues riding on one skill alone. These 5 players below each have the ability to do one thing extraordinarily well, and somehow, its carried them into a major-league career.

Contact: INF T.J. Rivera, New York Mets
The long shot of all long shots, T.J. Rivera signed as an undrafted free agent out of little Troy University. Without any physical projection, Rivera was never considered much of a prospect. Not rated a tremendous defensive player, he has nonetheless held his own just enough to let his ultimate carrying tool, his bat, to carry him to the majors. Rivera has hit everywhere he's gone: a career .324 in the minors, .307 in 3 seasons of Puerto Rican winter ball, and now .344 in his first 61 at bats in the majors. He doesn't provide much pop, but he can spray line drives around the field and produce. And production is all that matters at the major league level.


Power: "1B'" Chris Carter, Milwaukee Brewers
Probably one of the worst defensive players in the National League and league leader in strikeouts, Carter has overcome overwhelming odds and is currently in his seventh major league season. It does help that he has prodigious right-handed power, and can hit the ball a long, long, way. With a simple cut through the zone, Carter can send flyballs 450+ feet for monstrous home runs. Certainly makes up for the 11 errors at first, 188 strikeouts, and -2.0 baserunning score on FanGraphs.

Speed: OF Terrance Gore, Kansas City Royals
Used solely as a pinch runner in the playoffs, Gore provides no value to the Royals outside of his baserunning. Despite his speed, the Royals do not deploy him in the outfield during close games, nor let him hit considering his .563 OPS in AA. He does however, possess a single elite tool, and so far in his regular-season major league career has never been caught stealing. This one tool alone provides extreme value to Ned Yost and the Royals coaching staff late in important games, and it is the one skill that absolutely cannot be taught. He was once clocked at 22 mph when stealing second base:

Glove: 2B Christian Colon, Kansas City Royals
A progressive small ball team, the Royals are the employers of another specialist, this time nifty defender Christian Colon. Originally drafted as a shortstop out of college, Colon lacked the arm or foot speed to stick at that position, and his bat never developed. Nonetheless, his plus glovework has taken him to the big stage. In just 247 innings at second base, Colon has compiled a 3.5 UZR, good for a 14.5 UZR/150 over the course of a full season. Its a shame however, that he likely won't get a shot to reach that potential due to his woeful .229/.288/.285 slash line.

Arm: C Christian Bethancourt, San Diego Padres
Bethancourt has long been considered one of the top catching prospects in the game despite a light bat and below-average receiving and blocking skills. Scouts have doubted his inability to block pitches and frame. But if a catcher can't hit or field, how can he be a top prospect? Because those skills are teachable, and Bethancourt's one natural tool, his arm, is definitely elite. An absolute rifle, Bethancourt has been clocked at 96 mph on the mound and has a career 35% caught stealing rate. Rumor has it the Padres will trade him this offseason with hot prospect Austin Hedges coming up soon, but whichever organization ends up with him will have a potential-laden raw talent to develop. Here he is showcasing both his horrendous blocking but using his cannon arm to recover:

Stealing a Phenom: How the Padres Won the Drew Pomeranz Trade

Drew Pomeranz, Hot Stove Soapbox

Long time no post! I have been busy with volunteer service in the baseball-crazed island of Taiwan, but without internet I have missed some important news. On July 14, the Red Sox dealt top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza to the Padres for lefty Drew Pomeranz, and in part of a joint article with partner site MLB Sweet Spot, the two blogs will debate which team won the trade. Alex Vacca of MLB Sweet Spot has written up a detailed analysis defending the Pomeranz acquisition from the Red Sox side, click here to read it. His analysis is much more metrics-based as there is more data available for major leaguers, but despite being a numbers guy myself, this piece will focus more on the scouting side.

Dave Dombrowski has long been revered as a GM aggressive on the major league market. Back in his Tigers days, he led the Detroit squad to multiple playoff appearances through big-name trades and signings, acquiring the likes of Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Prince Fielder. It has, however, come at hefty prospect costs, and he left the organization with a depleted farm system with little impact talent. Now with Boston and with one of the league's deepest and most talented farm system at his disposal, he is free to return to his old dealing habits that brought him so much success. Trading away Espinoza, a top-15 prospect in the game, has been his biggest splash so far.

Anderson Espinoza shot up prospect rankings last winter after annihilating DSL and Rookie ball competition as a 17 year old. Hardly have Rookie ball pitchers ever been ranked so highly so quickly, but it is not hard to see why Espinoza is so special. At this age, many Latin teenagers flash potential plus fastballs with mid 90's velo, but they all have their warts due to youth and inexperience. Usually it is lack of command, underdeveloped secondaries, or just overall being a thrower instead of a pitcher. Espinoza, on the other hand, at just 18 years old, has a plus curveball and a tumbling change that is well beyond his years. Combined with a fastball that already reaches the upper 90's, hits triple digits, and has good spin and life, we are talking about a possible generational talent. His command could use a little more fine tuning, but for a teenager, the confidence and poise he has in his three pitch mix helps it play up. Espinoza is mechanically sound as well, with naturally fast arm speed that he matches on all three pitches to create deception. His delivery is basic and repeatable, with a clean arm action. He does a good job staying on balance and unlike his Latin teenage counterparts, hardly ever yanks off to the side in his finish. With a strong lower half, he is able to fire his hips to generate plus velo while still staying in control of his body and keeping the delivery repeatable. He also does a good job staying on top of the curve to ensure the big 12-6 break, and the change tumbles hard to the arm side. The curve is already a plus pitch, and the changeup has potential to be plus as well. Despite not having outstanding numbers at the A-ball level, keep in mind that he is the same age as a high school senior, and most players that age are still down in the GCL or AZL, much less full-season ball, and he has still been able to maintain a high strikeout rate regardless.

Drew Pomeranz is a great pitcher in his own right, an All-Star caliber lefty that has played on winning teams in Oakland. He can pitch, no doubt, and his development of a cutter has taken him from swingman to #2/3 starter status. In his breakout season this year, he has posted a 2.47 ERA, but a closer look at the circumstances show a switch from the AL to the NL and a move to the cavernous Petco Park. This goes along with a low BABIP and high strand rate, hinting that his current rate of success may not be sustainable. With a new third pitch, he has gotten better, and advanced metrics do show improvement as well, but a switch to the perennially tough AL East will determine just how much improvement. The biggest risk with Pomeranz, however, is the fact that he has never topped 100 innings ever in a single major league season. With the Padres, he has already thrown 103 in the first half alone. This begs the question: as a starter who moved to Petco Park and discovered sudden success, how much of his success can be attributed to actual development, and is the risk of acquiring a starter who has never even surpassed half a season's workload worth giving up possibly the best pitching prospect in all of baseball? 

Fangraphs recently released an article breaking down the trade (worth a read, click here), and discussed that pitchers ranked on prospect lists in the Espinoza range generally average around 8.3 career WAR, with 28% of them having zero or negative career WARs. Pomeranz, even with regression, should be able to easily reach that same 8.3 mark in his 2.5 years of team control with Boston. But this doesn't account for the fact that prospect lists are highly subjective and also account for a prospect's proximity to the majors. As noted in the article, other pitchers ranked near him include Jose de Leon, Josh Hader, and Jose Berrios, all of whom have extensive minor league track records and have reached AAA. Espinoza ranked this highly straight out of the Gulf Coast League at age 17, truly a testament to the kind of raw talent and limitless upside he possesses. By the time he reaches AAA and develops some track record of his own, he might be in the conversation for top 10 prospect in the game, and average WAR for those pitchers jumps to 14.6, with zero percent posting negative career WARs. Anderson Espinoza is not just another young, hard-throwing Latin lottery ticket. Anderson Espinoza is an absolute phenom. Is it possible that he could fall short of the 8.3 WAR mark? Sure, all pitching prospects are volatile, but with his kind of devastating stuff he carries a higher floor than most others. And is it possible he hits his upside and absolutely blows past that mark en route to becoming one of the best pitchers in all of baseball with career value much more than what Pomeranz will provide to the Red Sox? Most definitely. 

Usually when prospects are dealt for MLB players, the prospects are the risky ones and the big leaguer is a proven commodity. But when the major leaguer is a lefty who averages 91 on his fastball with a sudden breakout in Petco Park while topping just 100 innings for the first time, and the prospect is an 18 year old prodigy who has clean mechanics, a triple digit fastball, and not one but two plus offspeeds with command of all three pitches, who carries more risk? Dave Dombrowski is aggressive, and making this move could help them make a playoff push in David Ortiz's last season. A.J. Preller, the San Diego GM, has not been perfect in his tenure, but if this move pays off the way he hopes it will, with Espinoza fulfilling his lofty potential and Pomeranz falling back apart, San Diego may have pulled off one of the biggest heists in baseball in the 21st century.

To read Alex Vacca's post on MLB Sweet Spot about why the Red Sox won this trade, please click here.

From Our Partner Site MLB Sweet Spot: Trade Deadline Tracker

Baseball MTJAG is pleased to announce a collaboration with MLB Sweet Spot, a baseball blog by Alex Vacca. The numbers-savvy baseball fan from the East Coast will provide a fresh perspective of the sport compared to my West Coast insight, so be prepared for some interesting articles to come. Below is Vacca's trade deadline tracker, with an analysis of the recent James Shields trade.
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Baseball Prospectus

2016 TRADE DEADLINE TRACKER

by Alex Vacca

Now that the baseball season has entered June, teams are at the point where they need to begin evaluating how they would like to proceed with the rest of the year, and more specifically, in the next two months leading up to the *trade deadline. As trades begin to materialize, I will be summarizing them here. I will give my take on the trade as a whole, as well as winners and losers in both the short term and the long term.

*2016 Non-waiver Trade Deadline: August 1st at 4:00 pm ET

June 4th, 2016:

San Diego Padres trade RHP James Shields to the Chicago White Sox for RHP Erik Johnson, INF Fernando Tatis Jr. and Cash

Initial Reaction: When the trade was first announced and I was unaware of the cash involved, I felt that the return for Shields was right along the lines of what I would have expected. After seeing that the Padres would be paying $29 million of the remaining $56 million on Shields’s contract (as reported by Bob Nightingale of USA Today), it hit me that maybe the Padres forced a trade too soon, as I felt they could have gotten more had they waited.

Analysis: Shields, of course, is the primary piece being moved in this deal. While he is no longer the ace that helped bring the Royals to the World Series in 2014, he is still as durable as pitchers come (over 200 innings each of the past 9 seasons), and will be slotting into a rotation that already includes Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. At the age of 34, and having a big fly ball/home run tendency, Shields is probably more of a mid-4s ERA pitcher than a top of the rotation option he once was, but this is all that the White Sox will need from him to contend, and at the price of approximately $10 million over the next two years, it is well worth it.

Through his first 98.0 career innings, the now 26-year old Erik Johnson has not looked like anything more than a number 5 starter in the majors. Even that may be a bit too much to expect, as his 4.50 ERA and 5.98 FIP do not bode well for his future. The Padres will likely use him as a spot starter with the hopes that he can maintain just enough success to take the ball every fifth day in the future.

To read about the other component of the deal, Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as many other insightful articles on his blog, continue here.

Chih-Sheng Lin to the Padres?

Lamigo Monkeys Official Website

According to multiple reliable Taiwanese media outlets, (here and here, both are in Chinese) the San Diego Padres have checked in on Taiwanese free agent slugger, face of the franchise, media sensation, and 2015 CPBL MVP Chih-Sheng Lin. Lin, soon to be 34 years old, is an infielder who has been a top 5 player in the CPBL (the highest-level of pro ball in Taiwan, comparable to A+. AA leagues in the US) for the last 12 years. He can play all four infield positions, and is still a physical monster at his age. Coming off an MVP season in the CPBL, Lin is now a free agent due for either a major raise in Taiwan or a contract offer from the MLB, KBO, or NPB.

Lin was the first overall pick in the 2003 Amateur Draft held in December, and he made his CPBL debut the next June as the 4-hitter in the La New Bears lineup. He made an immediate impact, hitting .318/.380/.527 with 11 home runs in just 57 games for the startup team, becoming their face of the franchise along with former top Dodgers prospect Chin-Feng Chen. Over the course of 12 years in the league, he has collected Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and many Best 10 Awards (given to the best player at each position), as well as multiple HR titles and an MVP. This season, the CPBL saw an offensive boom, and save for a few, all hitters had career years and all pitchers had career worsts. Numbers from this season should be taken with a grain of salt, but Lin took full advantage of it, slashing .380/.469/.689 with 31 home runs and 30 stolen bases en route to MVP honors and a batting title as well as MVP of the Taiwan Series, which I covered here. The biggest takeaway from this season is that he showed that, at 33 years old, he still had plenty of athleticism left in him, swiping 30 bags. Looking at prior seasons, where the CPBL was a more neutral hitting/pitching environment, he has been a consistent performer over the course of his career. Lin's batting average has dipped below .310 just 3 times, with a career low of .279 in 2014 before bouncing back in a big way. He is one of the biggest power bats the island of Taiwan has ever produced, batting in the heart of the order in all of Chinese Taipei's international tournaments like the Olympics, World Baseball Classic, and 2015's Premier12, where Lin was one of the best players in the entire tournament, batting .347/.375/.913 with 4 HRs in 4 straight games, including this tie-breaker against the mighty Cubans, an absolute bomb off a 74-mph breaking ball.

Lin, of course, is not without his faults. His career 9% walk rate in the CPBL isn't bad, but likely does not bode well for his plate discipline numbers in the MLB. He has an aggressive approach and is susceptible to breaking balls and off speed, and while it has not been exposed in the CPBL (career 18% K-rate), against more advanced pitching in the Premier12 tournament, there were hints of strikeout issues. He struck out 6 times in 23 plate appearances, all coming against top teams such as Canada, Cuba, and Puerto Rico, including once against big-leaguer Andrew Albers. His swing, which lowers his hands before taking a bit of an uppercut through the zone, may lead to trouble against high fastballs with better velocity at the big league level. His natural defensive position is shortstop, and while he was a top defender back in his prime, he has lost a step with age and is probably best suited for an infield corner. He definitely has the arm to handle third and could probably play second as well and shortstop in a pinch, making him a versatile piece that could appeal to National League teams such as the Padres.

In Taiwan, Lin is more than just a baseball player. On the baseball-crazed island, fans treat their superstars like idols (airports go crazy when Wei-Yin Chen returns for the winter). Lin, who has a big personality and a high-energy guy both on and off the field is a media sensation, a true celebrity that is all over TV shows and magazines, with dance moves like these. A transition stateside will surely be closely followed by Taiwanese media and come with lots of hype, being the first CPBL position player to make the switch (Fu-Te Ni made it as a Tigers LOOGY before succumbing to Tommy John surgery). He has drawn interest from MLB before: as an amateur by the Seattle Mariners, who cited his athleticism and power up the middle, and the Cleveland Indians, who supposedly gave him a private workout in early 2010. Rumor also has it that the A's once considered him a possibility up the middle around that time as well. This offseason, as a true free agent and requiring no posting fee, he has drawn interest from the Padres and another mystery team who have checked in and confirmed Lin's free agency status with the CPBL, which shows that they at least have some interest in his abilities. The Padres currently stand to have some combination of Cory Spangenberg, Jedd Gyorko, Yangervis Solarte, and Jose Pirela handle infield duties, and while all of them are solid players in their own right, none of them scream "big offensive threat" or, with Gyorko as the exception, profile as 20+ HR bats. The Padres have been agressive in the Asian market, being the winning bidder for Korean pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim and pursuing Japanese third baseman Nobuhiro Matsuda, who profiles similarly to Lin, this winter. While Lin, at 34 years old, is likely not the highest-upside solution to their problem, but he will probably provide some pop and versatility defensively at a reasonable price. At his age, he probably won't command much more than a 1 or 2 year deal worth somewhere around 2 million annually. It might even be smaller, depending on what teams are interested and if the KBO or NPB teams have legitimate interest as well. Expect Lin to hit around .230/.295/.390, and while that doesn't seem stunning right off the bat, it is right around what Ian Desmond and Wilmer Flores hit last year and certainly acceptable as a platoon option for someone like Spangenberg. At 34, Lin may be a bit past his prime, but with his high-energy game and ability to hit some homers and swipe a few bases, he should be an appealing piece to an infield-needy team like San Diego.

Here is a bonus video of Lin homering in Game 7 of the Taiwan Series, giving Lamigo a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first.